Game of Thrones Season 7 spoilers below!
Say what you will about the Lannisters — and boy is there a lot to say — they hold true to their slogan: a Lannister always pays his debts.
In season 7 episode 4, we get to see Cersei pay off a massive debt to the Iron Bank thanks to a sneaky invasion of High Garden and a little twist of poison in Olenna’s cocktail. Ironically, and perhaps tragically, one Redditor pointed out how writing this big ol’ rent check may have been Cersei’s fatal mistake.
From user FellatioNelson
We have seen Cersei’s Modus Operandi over and over again. She makes a short term play that costs her in the long run.
Tycho Nestoris of the Iron Bank said some very revealing things this episode. One was that the Bank does not Bet on winners and losers, it instead invests in the chosen victor. He also says the bank will support the Iron Throne once their debt is paid, not necessarily the current Queen, but whoever is on the throne. Second he appears to be flattering her by saying Tywin never paid his debt in full and she is really outshining her father by doing so.
This is her big mistake, Tywin was no fool and he knew that while the Lannisters were in debt to the Bank the Bank had a vested interest in their success. By paying the debt in full Cersei has allowed Tycho to wash his hands of the Lannisters altogether. After what we saw on the battlefield we have a good idea whose position is strongest and who the Bank would like to back. This clearly contributes to the dire situation in Kings Landing with no grain and limited supplies. She will not Abdicate, instead force the dragons to destroy the city at which point the Kingslayer will be the Valonqar most assume he will be. The irony of this theory is in this case the Lannisters are undone by paying their debt.
If you didn’t follow that, think of it this way: The Iron Bank was blown away by Cersei paying off her debt in full — something Tywin never did. That leads you to believe that Tywin may have had a reason not to pay the debt. That reason may have been the fact that when you sever the tie of debt, the Iron Bank no longer has a financial stake in your success. Pay the debt and you’re just another player in the game with one less institution behind you.
The Iron Bank said they will be loyal to whoever sits on the throne, but without a debt owed, they have no real reason to root for Cersei.
Also, I don’t know if you caught it, but there was a real subtle and low-key battle at the end of the episode that stopped the High Garden loot train in its tracks. So we’ll have to wait and see how that might change the bank’s feelings.
Credible or not, this theory does have some beautiful symmetry to it. Paying a debt causes the downfall of the Lannister family? Poetry.